Las Vegas consumers are expected to spend $5 billion on this year's holiday shopping, based on predictions by the National Retail Federation.  This would be a 4% increase over last year.

Deloitte, one of the world's top four accounting firms, forecasts similar growth.

"The projected holiday season growth is, in part, due to the current health of the labor market,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. “Near record-low unemployment rates, coupled with continued monthly job creation, may encourage people to spend more during the holiday season. The economy is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. Additionally, we continue to see consumer confidence elevated, which also helps boost holiday spending."

For most Clark County retailers, holiday spending brings in about 20% of annual sales But, long gone are the days when the bulk of this shopping occurred between Black Friday and Christmas.

It's the cycle of American business. During this country's history there have been more recessions than presidents, 47 vs. 45.  Unfortunately, some economists believe number 48 could start any day now.  

The textbook definition of a recession is a period of declining economic performance across an entire economy, frequently measured as two consecutive quarters. In other words: it's a time when most Las Vegas small business owners sell fewer of their goods and services.

There is one thing a recession is not.  It is not a time for local business owners to stop advertising.

One of the great marketing minds of all time, Henry Ford, once said, "The man who stops advertising to save money is like the man who stops the clock to save time."

There are many examples of companies that have proven Mr. Ford's observation to be accurate. The bowl of cereal you had this morning could be one example.

Business owners who sell mattresses in the Las Vegas area might be losing sleep.

Last year, Clark County consumers spent close to $481 million for new mattresses.  A recent survey conducted by Piper Jaffray indicates that many retailers believe  that the category will become even stronger during the last four months of this year.

The reason for the owners' sleep loss is that many customers are skipping local stores and buying their mattresses on the internet. According to Statista, 37% of mattress buyers are now purchasing from one-of-175 direct-to-consumer sites like Casper or from online retailers like Amazon. 

To keep customers shopping local requires advertising.

In 1930, the Galvin Manufacturing Corporation put the first car radio on the market. They called it the Motorola. This in-car entertainment would setback a Las Vegas consumer about $120 which would be equivalent to $1200 today.

But, if you had that kind of cash, you would be able to cruise around in your Ford Model-A, DeSoto, Packard, or Studebaker and hear the music of the day from radio stations in Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Reno.  

It wouldn't be until 1940 when Las Vegas would have it's own full-time radio station.

Today, there's a radio in almost every vehicle on the streets of Clark County. Despite the competition on the dashboard from other sources of entertainment, AM/FM radio remains the dominant choice for in-car entertainment.  This is great news for local business owners who depend on Las Vegas radio to market their goods and services.

Suppose you woke up one morning and found a 100-year-old machine in your basement. You soon discovered that every time you put a dime in the machine, one dollar came out.  How many dimes would you drop in that machine?

Good news for Las Vegas small business owners: such a machine exists and you probably have one in your car, at work, at home, even on your phone. It's called local radio.

Over the past few years, Nielsen has conducted over 20 studies to determine what type of return-on-investment (ROI) a business can expect from radio advertising.  Although the results varied by industry, the average company generated $100 in sales for ever $10 invested.  Turning dimes into dollars.

Next year marks the 80th anniversary of KENO, the first radio station in Las Vegas.

Since 1940, Las  small business owners have depended on radio advertising to market their goods and services to local consumers.  During the next 12 months, these consumers are expected to spend $39 billion.

By any measure, radio is still the best way to advertise in Las Vegas. Last week, for instance, significantly more consumers tuned-in to a Vegas radio station than watched local TV; read a local newspaper; or logged-on to Pandora and Spotify.

To buy radio advertising effectively, there are some terms every Las Vegas small business owner should know.  Here is a list of helpful definitions.

The National Retail Federation has predicted that this year's back-to-school shopping season will set a new record. Households with school-age children are expected to spend, on average, $696.70 preparing their kids for the first day of classes. This tops the previous record set in 2012.

For Las Vegas small business owners, this means there is $453,926,560 of back-to-school bucks in play between now and the first bell of the school year.

According to the NRF, here's how the $696.70 per household will be spent.

• Clothing & Accessories: $239.82
• Computers & Electronics: $203.44
• Shoes: $135.96
• School Supplies: $117.49

To grab the largest share of back-to-school spending will require small business owners to advertise.  By any metric, advertising on Las Vegas radio stations will be the most effective.  Here's why.

Striking a wrong note is a potent tactic that a Nevada small business owner can use when advertising on Las Vegas radio stations. This can ensure commercials are heard and remembered.

At the very second a radio commercial starts, 11,000,000 other pieces of data are battling for the attention of the listener's ear. To win the fight, an advertisement must do the unexpected. Why?

Humans don't have earlids.  This means every sound a person is exposed to makes it as far as the brain. But, the brain can only process about 50 pieces of information at a time. If you do the math, that means 10,999,950 bits of information per second are turned away.

Making it past the brain's gatekeeper requires the information to strike a wrong note or violate what is expected  This filter supports the basic survival instinct. It's why someone will leap out of bed if they hear a stranger's soft footsteps while sleeping, but will snore right through their clanging alarm clock.

The number one job of every commercial on Las Vegas radio is not to sell products.

The number one job is not to build store traffic or to create top of mind of awareness.

The number one job of a radio commercial is not to build brand or deliver ROI.

The number one job of every commercial on a Las Vegas radio station is to be heard. Period. When a commercial is heard, then all the rest will follow. But being heard is not easy.

At the exact second a radio commercial begins, 11,000,000 other pieces of information are all wrestling for the listener's attention.  Sadly, a consumer's brain is only capable of dealing with about 50 bits of that information at a time.

Here's a quiz for Las Vegas small business owners:

Which of these online sites reach more adults each month than Las Vegas radio stations: Google? Netflix? ESPN? YouTube? Twitter Facebook?

The answer may be a surprise. Radio reaches more adult consumers every month than all websites and apps.  This is critical information for Las Vegas business owners to knows to be able to choose the best way to advertise their goods and services.

The number one media characteristic that contributes to the success of an advertising campaign is reach. This is a measure of how many different people are exposed to an advertiser's message.